Saturday, September 12, 2009

Commercial Crash?

Below is an excerpt from an article on Yahoo.com about the next ten financial bubbles. Commercial real estate made the list at #9. Posted Sep 11, 2009 09:17am EDT by Lawrence Delevingne in Products and Trends, Recession, Banking, Housing


9.) Commercial real estate bubble: This bubble is already hissing, if not popping outright. While the economy is improving and some home sales are slowly coming back, the commercial real estate market could get far worse. As The New York Times reports, "Even though industry lobbyists were able to persuade Congress to extend a loan program aimed at prodding the stalled securitization market back to life, several analysts said it was unlikely to head off a spate of defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies that could surpass the devastating real estate crash of the early 1990s."

As UPI notes, commercial mortgage defaults could reach 4.1 percent by the end of the year, up from 2.25 percent in the first quarter, and Real Capital Analytics estimates commercial property loans worth $83 billion have been involved in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy in 2009.
Badly hit will likely be malls. "The next financial tsunami to hit will be the widespread failure of shopping center mortgages," says Peter Monroe, co-chair of REOMAC, a not for profit trade association to CNBC. "Half a trillion dollars of commercial loans financed on historically low rates, are due for refinancing in the next three years," says Monroe. "The negative impact of these shopping center mortgages is enormous."


Here is a link to the full article, which I found very informative, http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/325783/Ten-Bubbles-in-the-Making?tickers=%5Egspc,%5Edji,xlf



Thanks For Reading!

Aaron Glassman, Broker/Owner

http://www.a1realtygroup.net/
Ymailto:YourSouthFloridaRealtor@gmail.com


***Photo copied from my title company's website http://www.a1titleandescrow.com/. I did not take this picture, however my wife did work in the buidling, on the 35th floor. The building is usually showcased on television, especially during coverage of local sporting events.

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